Campaigning Wiki

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Summary

A problem tree is a causal diagram with the core problem as the trunk, its causes as roots, and its effects as branches. It is the diagnostic that stops a campaign from running on a symptom rather than a leverage point.

Body

A problem tree is the simplest of the campaign-diagnostic tools: a single diagram that surfaces the causal structure of an issue. The People Power Manual lists “the problem tree” as one of its situational-analysis process guides, alongside force-field analysis and the SWOT [source: people-power-manual].

The discipline is to build it by asking, not listing:

  • State the core problem as a single neutral sentence — tenant evictions in District X rose 40 % in 2025 — not as a solution already smuggled in (landlords are greedy).
  • Ask “but why?” downward — the roots. Each root is a cause of the problem above it. Continue until the team runs out of plausible causes or hits a structural factor (a law, a market condition, a power relationship) it cannot move further by asking why.
  • Ask “so what?” upward — the branches. Each branch is an effect of the problem. Continue until the effects reach a stake the campaign cares about.

The Commons Library runs the problem tree as part of its situational-analysis sequence and pairs it explicitly with power-mapping: once the tree is drawn, the team asks which root cause can we actually move? — and rejects the rest of the tree [source: commons-library]. The People Power Manual’s problem-tree process guide is built to make the same jump from analysis to leverage, and it pairs with the campaign’s theory of change so the chosen root cause becomes the campaign’s primary objective [source: people-power-manual].

The flip — once the tree is drawn, the team builds an objectives tree: each cause becomes a corresponding solution, and the trunk becomes the campaign’s long-term goal. The objectives tree is the raw material for theory of change: it provides the if/then links the ToC needs, in order.

A common failure mode is to produce a tree where every cause is listed at the same level, with no causal hierarchy. The Commons Library treats the because links as the entire point of the exercise — without them, the tree is a list and the analysis is decorative [source: commons-library]. Another failure mode is choosing a root cause the team cannot affect (a global structural factor) and ignoring the local root cause the team can move. The People Power Manual pairs the problem tree with power-mapping precisely to head this off: roots that survive the power-map filter are the ones the campaign can realistically act on [source: people-power-manual].

Use it for

Finding the leverage point when the issue feels big and vague; avoiding campaigning on a symptom; producing the analytical input to a theory-of-change; aligning a coalition on which root cause the campaign will own.

Open Questions

None yet.

Sources & verification

  • sources/people-power-manual — grounding: secondary — RAW (7977 chars)
  • sources/commons-library — grounding: secondary — RAW (5257 chars)

Verified 2026-06-23 by llm-qc.

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